2023 World Series preview and prediction

The 2024 World Series opens on Friday night at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas with the American League champion Texas Rangers playing host to the National League champion Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Rangers and Diamondbacks are each fresh off having eliminated last year’s pennant winners, the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies, with dominating Game 7 performances on the road in their respective League Championship Series.

While the Rangers (Texas) and Dbacks (Arizona) claim to represent an entire state in their team names, those looking for more specific city-metro references can think of this as a Dallas (Rangers) vs Phoenix (Dbacks) series. Thus, we have the first-ever Southwest matchup for the championship of Major League Baseball.

This was a third American League pennant for the Rangers, who also captured the AL crown back in 2010-11. Texas has never won a World Series title. For the Diamondbacks, this was only the second National League pennant in franchise history. Arizona’s only other NL crown came back in 2001 when they won the World Series in a dramatic 7^th game.

Let’s look at the pivotal position players, the likely starting pitchers, and other keys to each team’s championship hopes.

TEXAS RANGERS

The Rangers feature a high-powered offense that leads all of baseball with 71 runs scored, nearly 6.5 per game, during this postseason. Their 22 home runs are second only to the team that Arizona just dumped, the Phillies, who had 24 homers.

Leading the way is the ALCS Most Valuable Player, right fielder Adolis Garcia. The 30-year-old all-star led the club with 39 homers and 107 RBIs during the regular season. He has elevated that game here in the postseason, slashing .327/.352/.750 with seven homers and 20 RBIs.

The Texas keystone combo of second baseman Marcus Semien (29/100) and shortstop Corey Seager (33/96) produced big HR/RBI totals in the regular season. Rookie third baseman Josh Jung, who missed six weeks from early August through mid-September with a fractured left thumb, produced 23 homers and drove in 70 over 122 games.

Mitch Garver (19), Jonah Heim (18), Nathaniel Lowe (17), Leody Taveras and Ezequiel Duran (14 each) and Robbie Grossman (10) all blasted double-digit home runs.

Travis Jankowski led the club with 19 stolen bags while both Semien and Taveras each had 14 swipes for a Rangers team that doesn’t do much base-stealing. Jankowski and Grossman have been the only bench options utilized thus far by manager Bruce Bochy.

On the mound, expect Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery to get the starts in Games 1 and 2. They should be followed by Max Scherzer in Game 3, with Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney available for long relief.

Don’t be surprised to see old-school Bochy come back with Eovaldi and Montgomery on short rest in Game 4 and (if needed) Game 5, with both available again in a potential Game 7.

The bullpen has been led by righty Josh Sborz and lefty Cody Bradford. Veterans Aroldis Chapman and Jose Leclerc have enjoyed mixed results. Southpaw veteran Will Smith is probably the only other Rangers pitcher who would see action in any meaningful situation.

 

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

The Dbacks 4.25 runs-per-game scoring average during this postseason has not been nearly as explosive as the Rangers. Arizona has relied more on timely hitting and shutdown pitching.

That isn’t to say that there is no offense to be had. Corbin Carroll is the likely NL Rookie of the Year and one of the most dynamic young talents in the game. His regular season: 25 homers, 76 RBIs, 116 runs, 54 stolen bases.

In Game 7 at Philly, Carroll showed how he can take over and dominate by going 3-4 with two runs scored, two RBIs, and two stolen bases.

Christian Walker (33/103), Ketel Marte (25/82), and Lourdes Gurriel (24/82) were the Dbacks other homer/RBI threats during the regular season. Marte, who turned 30-years-old two weeks ago, was the NLCS MVP after slashing .387/.406/.581 with four doubles and a triple while playing a sensational second base.

Rookie catcher Gabriel Moreno is one of the top up-and-coming backstops in the game. After a regular season in which he hit .284 with 50 RBIs over 380 plate appearances across 111 games, Moreno batted .296 and came up with clutch hits in a strong NLCS performance.

As for the bench and pinch-hitting roles, manager Torey Lovullo mostly goes with 11 players for nine positions, juggling Emmanuel Rivera with grizzled veteran Evan Longoria at third base and Alek Thomas with Pavin Smith in the outfield.

On the mound, Lovullo will surely open with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in Games 1 and 2 at Texas. They would be followed by Brandon Pfaadt in Game 3 when the Fall Classic returns to Chase Field for the first time since November 4, 2001.

Few baseball fans, let alone Dbacks fans, will forget that game. Less than two months after the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the three-time defending world champion New York Yankees and the Dbacks had battled to a 3-3 series split, setting up Game 7.

Few deciding games have featured as much high drama. Two of baseball’s all-time greatest pitchers, Roger Clemens for New York, and Curt Schilling for Arizona, yielded nothing for five-and-a-half frames.

Arizona broke through with a run in the bottom of the 6^th, but the Yanks answered with one in the 7^th and then got a leadoff homer from Alfonso Soriano in the top of the 8^th for the lead.

The game then went to the bottom of the 9^th with New York up 2-1 as manager Joe Torre sent the game’s all-time greatest closer, Mariano Rivera, out to the mound. There, the hosts rallied for a pair of runs, with Luis Gonzalez looping a walkoff single to score Jay Bell with the series-winning run.

Just as with Texas, don’t be surprised to see Lovullo shorten his rotation to three arms here: Gallen, Kelly, and Pfaadt. Everyone is available for a potential Game 7.

The Arizona bullpen has been fantastic, with righties Paul Sewald, Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson and lefty Joe Mantiply leading the way. Andrew Saalfrank as the second southpaw behind Mantiply, Miguel Castro, and Luis Frias have also been mostly solid when called upon.

 

PREDICTION

I just got done watching Arizona upset my Phillies in seven games. After watching their performance over the last week, it is very hard for me to pick against the Dbacks. They have talent that is better than their regular season record indicated, and the team is underrated by many across the baseball world.

Still, the Phillies led the NLCS by two games to one and held a 5-2 lead into the bottom of the 7^th of Game 4. Had the bullpen done their job, especially closer Craig Kimbrel, it would have been a 3-1 lead, and Zack Wheeler would have closed it out in five games the following night. There should have been no games six and seven comeback.

Texas has the look of a champion. Bochy has the Fall Classic experience in the dugout, the Rangers have more firepower, and they hold the home field advantage. I don’t think Texas allows Arizona the same comeback that the Phillies allowed. Give me the Rangers in five games, winning the first World Series title in franchise history.

NOTE: This piece was originally published in the IBWAA “Here’s the Pitch” daily email newsletter, to which I would highly recommend all baseball fans subscribe at this link: IBWAA Here’s the Pitch

---

MORE BASEBALL PIECES