A look back at five years, ahead to the future
On October 29, 2018 after having spent his first seven big-league seasons with the Washington Nationals, Bryce Harper officially became a free agent. At age 26, Harper would become one of the most coveted players to reach the open market in the history of the sport.
Over the next few months, formal meetings would take place between Harper and his wife Kayla, agent Scott Boras, and representatives from the Nationals, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Francisco Giants.
On January 12, 2019, Phillies brass including controlling owner John Middleton had a five-hour meeting with the superstar. This began a frantic six-week process leading up to spring training during which Harper would make his final decision.
That choice would finally be revealed on February 28, with the Phillies winning his services with a 13-year, $330 million deal that included a no-trade clause, no opt outs, and a $20 million signing bonus.
On Thursday afternoon, March 28, on Opening Day at Citizens Bank Park vs the division-rival Atlanta Braves, Harper rushed out to right field in a regular season Major League Baseball game for the first time wearing a Phillies uniform. He was greeted by the first of what would become many standing ovations from the home crowd.
Honestly, all of the drama and excitement surrounding the pursuit and signing of Harper and his subsequent debut with the ball club still feels very recent. And yet, somehow, five full seasons have passed. Here is a quick synopsis of each of those five campaigns for him and the team:
2019: The Phillies won their first four games in the Harper Era, begun with a three-game sweep of Atlanta at home. They would hold first place in the National League East Division for all but seven scattered days up through June 11. But a seven-game losing skid in mid-June dropped the club to second place. They would go just 44-54 after June 8, finishing at 81-81 in a disappointing fourth place, 16 games back of the Braves and a dozen behind Harper’s former Washington club. The Nationals, winners of 93 games during the season, would battle from their Wildcard position to capture the first World Series championship in franchise history. Harper played in 157 games and hit just .260 for the Phils, but he blasted 35 homers and drove in a career high 114 runs.
2020: COVID. Harper’s second season in Philly was delayed four months and fans were completely denied the opportunity to see him and their team play in person due to the pandemic. An abbreviated 60-game MLB season finally got underway sans fans on July 24. The Phillies got out of the gate slowly, sitting at just 9-14 and in fifth place a month in following a five-game losing streak. They went 19-18 from that point. But losses in seven of their final eight games cost them a postseason berth. Harper hit .268 with 13 homers and 33 RBIs, what equates to a 36/92 pace over a full 162-game season.
2021: The season began with limited fan participation as the COVID pandemic continued. But restrictions eased up as the summer arrived and fans were back in full force before it was all over. Good timing for Phillies fans especially, who got to enjoy Harper’s second National League Most Valuable Player campaign. He blasted 35 homers and 42 doubles, drove in 84 and scored 101 runs, and slashed to a .309/.429/.615 mark, also winning his second career NL Silver Slugger Award. The team finished in second place, but once again collapsed at the end. Losses in six of their last seven once again costing them a postseason berth.
2022: The Phillies stumbled out of the gate…again. This time it would cost manager Joe Girardi his job, fired on June 1 with the club sitting in third place at just 22-29 and already buried 12.5 games out in the standings. Bench coach Rob Thomson took over in the dugout and team fortunes improved immediately. The ball club won their first eight games under the new skipper, and went 65-46 from that point. A 3-0 shutout victory at Houston on October 3 clinched the first postseason berth for the team in 11 years.
The Phillies then went on a thrilling run through the postseason, defeating Saint Louis, Atlanta, and San Diego to win the eighth NL pennant in franchise history. They held a 2-1 lead in the World Series before Houston rallied to end the championship dream in six games. Harper suffered through an injury-riddled campaign. An early UCL tear in his right elbow reduced him to DH-only duties for the remainder of the year. Then a fractured thumb on a hit-by-pitch in late June cost him nearly two months. On returning, Harper slashed just .227/.325/.352 in 151 plate appearances over the final 35 games. But then in the postseason, it all clicked back in for the superstar and team leader. He slashed .349/.414/.746 with six homers and 13 RBIs over the 17 playoff games, was named MVP of the NLCS, and clinched the first World Series appearance for the team in 13 years with a dramatic two-run homer in the bottom of the 8th inning in the pennant clincher vs San Diego.
2023: For the third straight year the Phillies finished in second place in the NL East Division, but it was a distant 14 games behind Atlanta. However, after sweeping Miami in the Wildcard round the Phils rolled the Braves out of the NLDS for a second straight Red October. After taking a 3-2 lead over Arizona in the NLCS with the final two games set for Citizens Bank Park, a return trip to the World Series seemed inevitable. Someone forgot to tell the Dbacks pitchers. The Phils normally dynamic offense scored just three runs in losing both games at home to end the year in disappointing fashion. Harper slashed .293/.401/.499 with 21 homers, 72 RBIs over 126 games in a season that was delayed until May 2 by surgery to repair the elbow. Solely a DH through July 20, he began working out and then actually playing first base. By the end of the season he was the everyday starter at that position.
Synopsis: Harper’s first five seasons have resulted in a National League pennant and two postseason appearances for the team, highlighted by two playoff series wins over Atlanta. The player has won an NL MVP, an NLCS MVP, one NL All-Star berth, and two Silver Slugger Awards. He has proven to be a true leader on and off the field and is by far the team’s most popular player since the late-2000’s, early-2010’s beloved group. Harper’s totals with the Phillies to this point: 581 games, .284/.395/.536, 122 HR, 144 doubles, 368 RBIs, 387 runs, 58 steals. During the 2023 season he passed the 300-homer mark for his career. He is now just three runs and 111 RBIs shy of the 1,000 career mark in both categories. The elbow injury has led the team to permanently move him to first base.
So, what does the future hold for Bryce Harper and the Phillies?
Harper will play the 2024 campaign at age 31 in what is slated to be a first full season as the club’s first baseman. With the injury issues apparently in his rear-view mirror, there is reasonable expectation that he will return to MVP-caliber production levels at the plate. The switch to first base should help protect his elbow from any future issues. Harper has the athleticism and drive to become a Gold Glove contender at the position.
The team is entering a very important year. The current Phillies window of contention remains clearly open with no reason that they cannot battle Atlanta for the division crown. At the very least they are once again a playoff contender, currently ranked by most as the third-best team in the National League behind Atlanta and Los Angeles.
But there are caution signs, mostly in the form of an aging core group of veterans. Harper leads a contingent of no fewer than nine key players age 30 or above: Harper (31), J.T. Realmuto (33), Trea Turner (31), Kyle Schwarber (31), Nick Castellanos (32), Aaron Nola (31), Zack Wheeler (34), Taijuan Walker (32), and Matt Strahm (32) either begin the season or will turn the listed ages during the 2024 campaign.
The Phillies have a problem in that they have not been able to develop any truly impactful offensive position players for years. Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm are nice contributing types. But not since Chase Utley in 2014 has a homegrown position player been named to the NL All-Star team.
For 2024, given health, there is no reason to feel that the Phillies cannot have a similar experience to their 2022-23 seasons. A solid regular season, a postseason berth, a stirring playoff run. With the right production from the key players, and given health, they can win the NL East over Atlanta. They have the talent to win the World Series. But as with most contenders, the wrong injuries could result in their missing the playoffs entirely.
But looking to the future, remaining a consistent contender is going to get more and more difficult without the emergence of high-level productive position players emerging from the minor leagues. The club’s top position player prospects, outfielder Justin Crawford and third baseman Aidan Miller, are big-time talents. But each of them will open the season as a teenager. They likely won’t see the field in South Philly until the 2026 season at the soonest, more likely 2027.
Bryce Harper’s first five seasons with the Phillies have to be considered a success. The team has a 368-340 regular season mark in that time, finished in second place for the last three years, appeared in the NLCS for the last two. They won a pennant and came within two games of a World Series title. Individually, Bryce has electrified fans with his play when healthy. His pennant-winning homer in the 2022 postseason is now an iconic all-time franchise moment.
For the next five years to match or exceed those first five years, Harper needs to remain healthy. His move to first base and MLB’s adoption of the universal DH should help ensure that happens. But ownership and management will also need to continually shape the roster around him, especially by finding a couple more young studs for the everyday lineup.
MATT VEASEY 