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BASEBALL, SPORTS

MLB League Championship Series 2019 preview and predictions

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The 2019 Major League Baseball postseason has already provided plenty of October excitement, with three of four Division Series pushed to decisive Game 5 dramatic conclusions.

Now the final four surviving ball clubs have moved on to battle in the respective League Championship Series over the next week or so. The two winners will earn their respective league pennant and advance to face-off in the World Series.

As for predictions, I went 1-1 in the Wildcard games and 3-1 in the LDS. With all of the craziness that is normally October baseball, I’ll take that 4-2 record and run with it. My LCS predictions come at the bottom of each series preview below.

This may be hard for most of my fellow Philadelphia Phillies fans to swallow, but at this point I will be rooting for the Washington Nationals to win it all.

My reasoning is that if the Phillies are not involved during any MLB postseason, I always root for any team(s) that have never won a World Series to finally enjoy that experience.

The Nationals have been in Washington since 2005 after playing their first 36 seasons north of the border as the Montreal Expos. The lone World Series crown in the history of our nation’s capital was captured by the Washington Senators back in 1926. That franchise moved to Minnesota, becoming the current Twins, back in 1961.

So, with that said, here the scheduled dates, times, locations, and TV network for each  in both the National League and American League Championship Series.

I have also listed the likely pitching match-ups, and the numbers in parentheses following the team names are where each finished in my final 2019 MLB Power Rankings of all 30 big-league ball clubs.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

Washington Nationals (9) vs Saint Louis Cardinals (6)

  1. Friday, 10/11, 8:08 PM EDT at Busch Stadium on TBS: Anibal Sanchez (WAS) vs Miles Mikolas (STL)
  2. Saturday, 10/12, 4:08 PM EDT at Busch Stadium on TBS: Max Scherzer (WAS) vs Adam Wainwright (STL)
  3. Monday, 10/14, TBA at Nationals Park on TBS: Patrick Corbin (WAS) vs Jack Flaherty (STL)
  4. Tuesday, 10/15, TBA at Nationals Park on TBS: Stephen Strasburg (WAS) vs Dakota Hudson (STL)
  5. IF NECESSARY – Wednesday, 10/16, TBA at Nationals Park on TBS: Anibal Sanchez (WAS) vs Miles Mikolas (STL)
  6. IF NECESSARY – Friday, 10/18, TBA at Busch Stadium on TBS: Max Scherzer (WAS) vs Adam Wainwright (STL)
  7. IF NECESSARY – Saturday, 10/19, TBA at Busch Stadium on TBS: Stephen Strasburg (WAS) vs Dakota Hudson (STL)

PREDICTION: Nationals in five

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

New York Yankees (10) vs Houston Astros (2)

(Pitching match-ups in Game Four are speculative, especially for the Yankees where J.A. Happ could be starting instead of Sabathia)

  1. Saturday, 10/12, 8:08 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park on FOX: Masahiro Tanaka (NYY) vs Zack Greinke (HOU)
  2. Sunday, 10/13, 8:08 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park on FS1: James Paxton (NYY) vs Justin Verlander (HOU)
  3. Tuesday, 10/15, TBA at Yankee Stadium on FOX/FS1: Luis Severino (NYY) vs Gerrit Cole (HOU)
  4. Wednesday, 10/16, TBA at Yankee Stadium on FOX/FS1: C.C. Sabathia (NYY) vs Wade Miley (HOU)
  5. IF NECESSARY – Thursday, 10/17, TBA at Yankee Stadium on FOX/FS1: Masahiro Tanaka (NYY) vs Zack Greinke (HOU)
  6. IF NECESSARY – Saturday, 10/19, TBA at Minute Maid Park on FOX/FS1: James Paxton (NYY) vs Justin Verlander (HOU)
  7. IF NECESSARY – Sunday, 10/20, TBA at Minute Maid Park on FOX/FS1: Luis Severino (NYY) vs Gerrit Cole (HOU)

PREDICTION: Astros in six

Once the two series have finished and the World Series match-up is set, I’ll be providing a preview as well as the Fall Classic prediction.

 

BASEBALL, SPORTS

MLB Division Series 2019 preview and predictions

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Washington Nationals celebrate their victory over the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2019 National League Wildcard Game

 

With a pair of wildcard playoff games in the books, the 2019 Major League Baseball postseason is now fully underway.

The host Washington Nationals rallied in dramatic fashion, scoring three times in the bottom of the 8th inning for a 4-3 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Wildcard Game on Tuesday night.

Then last night, the visiting Tampa Bay Rays scored four times over the first three innings and coasted to a 5-1 victory over the host Oakland Athletics.

With those opening salvos in the books, the drama will only ratchet up a notch as the weather turns cooler across the nation over the coming weeks of October baseball.

The match-ups are now set for a pair of Division Series in both the National and American Leagues. Those best-of-five series will get underway in New York, Houston, Los Angeles, and Atlanta over the next two days.

Having predicted victories by Washington and Oakland in the Wildcard games, I am 1-1 thus far in this postseason.

The following are my picks for each of the four Division Series. I have also listed the scheduled dates, times, location, and TV network for each game in the series as well as the likely pitching match-ups for the first three contests. TBA means that no time has been set as yet.

The numbers in parentheses are where each team finished in my final 2019 MLB Power Rankings of all 30 big-league ball clubs.

ALDS: New York Yankees  (10 ) vs. Minnesota Twins (5)

  1. Friday, 10/04, 7:07 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium on MLBN: James Paxton (NYY) vs Jose Berrios (Min)
  2. Saturday, 10/05, 5:07 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium on FS1: Masahiro Tanaka (NYY) vs Jake Odorizzi (Min)
  3. Monday, 10/07, TBA at Target Field on FS1: Luis Severino (NYY) vs Kyle Gibson/as primary with possible “opener” used (Min)
  4. Tuesday, 10/08, TBA at Target Field on FS1: if necessary
  5. Thursday, 10/10, TBA at Yankee Stadium on FS1: if necessary

PREDICTION: Yankees in three

ALDS: Houston Astros (2) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4)

  1. Friday, 10/04, 2:05 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park on FS1, TBS: Justin Verlander (Hou) vs Tyler Glasnow (TB)
  2. Saturday, 10/05, 9:07 PM EDT at Minute Main Park on FS1: Gerrit Cole (Hou) vs Blake Snell (TB)
  3. Monday, 10/07, TBA at Tropicana Field on MLBN: Zack Greinke (Hou) vs Charlie Morton (TB)
  4. Tuesday, 10/08, TBA at Tropicana Field on FS1: if necessary
  5. Thursday, 10/10, TBA at Minute Maid Park on FS1: if necessary

PREDICTION: Astros in five

 

NLDS: Atlanta Braves (11) vs. Saint Louis Cardinals (6)

  1. Thursday, 10/03, 5:02 PM EDT at SunTrust Park on TBS: Dallas Keuchel (Atl) vs Miles Mikolas (StL)
  2. Friday, 10/04, 4:37 PM EDT at SunTrust Park on TBS: Mike Foltynewicz (Atl) vs Jack Flaherty (StL)
  3. Sunday, 10/06, 4:10 PM EDT at Busch Stadium on TBS: Mike Soroka (Atl) vs Adam Wainwright (StL)
  4. Monday, 10/07, TBA at Busch Stadium on TBS: if necessary
  5. Wednesday, 10/09, TBA at SunTrust Park on TBS: if necessary

PREDICTION: Cardinals in four

 

NLDS: Los Angeles Dodgers (3) vs. Washington Nationals (9)

  1. Thursday, 10/03, 8:37 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium on TBS: Walker Buehler (LAD) vs Patrick Corbin (Was)
  2. Friday, 10/04, 9:37 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium on TBS: Clayton Kershaw (LAD) vs Stephen Strasburg (Was)
  3. Sunday, 10/06, 7:45 PM EDT at Nationals Park on TBS: Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD) vs Max Scherzer (Was)
  4. Monday, 10/07, TBA at Nationals Park on TBS: if necessary
  5. Wednesday, 10/09, TBA at Dodger Stadium on TBS: if necessary

PREDICTION: Dodgers in five

 

Once these series have fully ended and the match-ups have been set for each League Championship Series, I will come back with a preview and prediction for each of those.

BASEBALL, SPORTS

MLB 2019 Power Ranking: Mid-September

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The Oakland Athletics ascend to the top of the MLB Power Rankings as we head down the stretch

 

For the fourth straight period, my hometown Philadelphia Phillies find themselves at 14th overall in the 2019 MLB Power Rankings as we reach the stretch run in the middle of September.

The club also remains ranked in the 7th position among teams from the National League. Sitting at four games behind the 9th-ranked Chicago Cubs in the actual race for the final NL Wildcard playoff berth, the Phillies 2019 season is now officially on life support. They still have not won five games in a row all year long.

The Phillies embark on a three-city, 11-game road trip taking them to Atlanta (3), Cleveland (3) and Washington (5) leading up to a season-ending series at Citizens Bank Park against the Miami Marlins. The Fish have the worst record in the National League, but sport a winning 9-7 mark against the Phillies this season.

As stated each period, my own  feelings have no input into these MLB Power Rankings. Instead, each team’s position is all about actual performance: their results in the standings, as well as key statistical categories.

RANKINGS METHODOLOGY

My formula for compiling the rankings is always being researched to see if it can be improved upon.

Currently, that formula is made up of the following categories: winning percentage, runs-per-game, OPS against, and “Defensive runs saved” as measured at Fangraphs.

However, as the current season has unfolded, some teams have improved dramatically while others have slipped. So, here in September, overall winning percentage has been replaced by each team’s win percentage over their most recent 30 games.

The ‘Win-Loss’ component reflects each team’s ability to actually win ball games. ‘OPS against’ reflects a pitching staff’s ability to control the game and limit damage.

The runs-per-game component acknowledges that teams play various numbers of games as of the time of each ranking. For example, it wouldn’t be fair to consider a club that had scored 100 runs over 50 games as effective as a club who scored 100 runs over just 45 games.

Each club’s place in the four component categories gets them assigned a 1-30 numerical value. Those are added up to determine a final ranking points total.

Where there are any ties, those are broken using each team’s winning percentage over the last 30, and then by their current overall winning percentage since, in the end, winning is what it’s all about.

2019 SEPTEMBER 16 –  MLB RANKINGS

The Oakland Athletics have made a dramatic surge up the Power Rankings over the course of the summer. At 8th place in the first rankings back on June 1, Oakland fell to 12th on June 15.

But then by July 1, the A’s had risen to become the 5th-ranked ball club. They have remained in the top five ever since, finishing as runners-up to the Houston Astros on Labor Day.

Houston ranked first back on both June 15 and July 1, then returned to the top on Labor Day, and now flip places with Oakland.

The Los Angeles Dodgers were the National League’s top team for most of the summer. But on Labor Day they were passed by the Atlanta Braves. Now, both Atlanta and the red-hot Saint Louis Cardinals are ahead of the Dodgers among the NL ball clubs.

The Dodgers, however, have clinched their seventh consecutive NL West Division crown. The following are the “Magic Number” for each team to clinch their respective division title:

AL East: New York – 3, AL Central: Minnesota – 9, AL West: Houston – 5, NL East: Atlanta – 4, NL Central: Saint Louis – 12. Teams have between 11 and 13 games remaining on their 2019 regular season schedules.

In addition, each league’s Wildcard race features three teams within three games of one another in the loss column in the battle for two available spots. In the AL those are Oakland (60), Tampa Bay (62) and Cleveland (63), while in the NL the teams are Washington (66), Chicago (68) and Milwaukee (69).

In parentheses below are each team’s total ranking points this period, as well as their place in the last Power Rankings back on Labor Day.

  1. Oakland Athletics (15-2)
  2. Houston Astros (23-1)
  3. Atlanta Braves (28-3)
  4. Saint Louis Cardinals (33-6)
  5. Minnesota Twins (33-5)
  6. Los Angeles Dodgers (35-4)
  7. Washington Nationals (37-7)
  8. Tampa Bay Rays (37-11)
  9. Chicago Cubs (37-12)
  10. New York Yankees (39-9)
  11. Boston Red Sox (42-13)
  12. Cleveland Indians (42-10)
  13. Arizona Diamondbacks (42-8)
  14. Philadelphia Phillies (52-14)
  15. Milwaukee Brewers (65-19)
  16. New York Mets (65-15)
  17. San Diego Padres (68-16)
  18. Los Angeles Angels (70-17)
  19. Cincinnati Reds (71-18)
  20. Texas Rangers (74-20)
  21. San Francisco Giants (74-21)
  22. Kansas City Royals (80-23)
  23. Colorado Rockies (81-24)
  24. Pittsburgh Pirates (89-22)
  25. Seattle Mariners (90-28)
  26. Toronto Blue Jays (95-25)
  27. Miami Marlins (95-26)
  28. Chicago White Sox (99-27)
  29. Baltimore Orioles (107-29)
  30. Detroit Tigers (113-30)

The next MLB Power Rankings will be the final for the 2019 regular season. They will be released here following the final game of the regular season.

However, if there are any play-in games for a Wildcard berth, the final rankings will include and be released following any such game(s) played.

PHILLIES

As 2019 countdown reaches eight, Phillies remain in postseason hunt

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Phillies need Bryce Harper to play like a superstar to reach playoffs

Our weekly countdown towards the end of the 2019 Major League Baseball regular season now reaches ‘8’ – just eight more weeks left for the Philadelphia Phillies as they attempt to return to the postseason for the first time in eight years.

The Phillies are coming off another disheartening weekend, one in which the club dropped two of three to the lowly Chicago White Sox, owners of the seventh-worst record in MLB even after winning the series.
Still, the Fightin’ Phils remain tied with the division-rival Washington Nationals for the second National League Wildcard playoff berth at the moment. Those two have just one more loss than the Saint Louis Cardinals, who currently control the top Wildcard spot. Two are available.
Three more teams are right behind the Phillies and Nationals, all in the race still. But the real threat may be coming from a team that was way back just a few weeks ago.
Another NL East rival, the New York Mets, have won 15 of their last 20 games to move within a game of the .500 mark and within three games in the Wildcard race. Having obtained Marcus Stroman at the MLB trade deadline, the Mets may have the best starting pitching among all the teams still in the hunt.
This current winning streak from New York makes them one of three teams from the division to get hot over a lengthy stretch. The Braves won 28 of 38 between June 1 and July 15 to take over the division lead. After a horrendous start, the Nats went 36-15 pver two full months from May 24 to July 24.
The Phillies are the only team to have no such streak this season. The club has won as many as four in a row on four different occasions, the last more than a month ago in late June. The saving grace for the Phillies is that they have largely avoided fully tanking. From May 30 to June 24, the club lost 16 of 22. Outside of that, they have just two streaks of as many as three losses in a row all season long.
Can the Phillies take their turn, and go on a true winning spurt? If so, they not only would likely open up some distance in the Wildcard race, but they would get back into the hunt for a division crown. Do they have another big losing downturn in them? If so, they drop out of things, much as what happened with the 2018 ball club. Or maybe they simply tread water all year long. That might be the outcome which causes more angina and hair loss among the fan base than any other.
The following are the division and Wildcard standings with this week’s schedules in parentheses:

NL EAST STANDINGS

  1. Atlanta Braves 66-47 (at MIN – 3, at MIA – 4)
  2. Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals 58-53 (Phillies: at ARZ – 3, at SF – 4)

NL WILDCARD STANDINGS

  1. Saint Lous Cardinals 58-52 (at LAD – 3, PIT – 3)
  2. Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals 58-53 (Nats: at SF – 3, at NYM – 3)
  3. Milwaukee Brewers 57-56 (at PIT – 3, TEX – 3)
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants 56-56 (Dbacks: PHI – 3, at LAD – 3) / (SF: WAS – 3, PHI – 4)
  5. New York Mets 55-56 (MIA – 4, WAS – 3)
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Phillies and Cardinals try to dodge tornadoes to get in series opener

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A wave of strong storms is due to hit Philly this week

Weather permitting, the Philadelphia Phillies (31-22) will host the Saint Louis Cardinals (26-26) on Tuesday night at Citizens Bank Park in South Philadelphia.

That weather should indeed prove a major factor per The Weather Channel. There is a 75% chance of storms at the scheduled 7:05pm first pitch time, increasing to 95% between 8-9pm and continuing at 60% by 9pm as the storm system which spawned damaging tornadoes in Ohio last night moves through our area.
If they play, the Phillies will continue to try extending their solid work during this current rough stretch of the schedule. Beginning on May 13 the club began a stretch that we have referred to here at Phillies Nation as a 23-game “crucible” of games. All are against competition outside the division, all against winning or traditionally tough opposition.
To this point the club has gone 8-6 over the first two weeks of this stretch. After this current three-game series with the Cardinals concludes, the Phillies will head out to the west coast to visit the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.
The Phillies took two of three from the Cardinals out in Saint Louis earlier this month, getting shutout in the opener but then roaring back to dominate the final two games. That is what the Phillies are trying to accomplish, win series, as they attempt to return to the postseason for the first time in eight years.
With today’s breaking news that Odubel Herrera was arrested following an incident at an Atlantic City casino in which he has been charged with domestic assault of his 20-year-old girlfriend, the Phillies have re-called Nick Williams. The club has also re-called pitcher Nick Pivetta, and both players will be in tonight’s starting lineup.

TUESDAY STARTING LINEUPS

PHILLIES LINEUP

  1. Andrew McCutchen CF
  2. Jean Segura SS
  3. Bryce Harper RF
  4. Rhys Hoskins 1B
  5. J.T. Realmuto C
  6. Cesar Hernandez 2B
  7. Scott Kingery 3B
  8. Nick Williams LF
  9. Nick Pivetta

CARDINALS LINEUP

  1. Dexter Fowler RF
  2. Paul Goldschmidt 1B
  3. Paul DeJong SS
  4. Marcell Ozuna LF
  5. Matt Carpenter 3B
  6. Yadier Molina C
  7. Kolten Wong 2B
  8. Harrison Bader CF
  9. Adam Wainwright P

INJURY REPORT

CARDINALS: one of the healthiest teams in the game, the Cards only key player on the IL is lefty reliever Brett Cecil. He is suffering from carpal tunnel syndrome in his left throwing arm and could return sometime in June.
PHILLIES: as we all know, the Phils bullpen has been seriously depleted by injuries with the following arms all on the IL: David Robertson, Victor Arano, Tommy Hunter, Pat Neshek, Edubray Ramos. Outfielder Roman Quinn is also on the IL with a groin strain. He took batting practice last week, and could return in early June. None of the pitchers is due back this series.

SHIBE VINTAGE SPORTS STARTING PITCHING MATCHUP

  • Nick Pivetta: 2-1, 8.35 ERA, 2.127 WHIP, 31 hits allowed over 18.1 IP with a 16/8 K:BB
  • Adam Wainwright: 4-4, 4.82 ERA, 1.414 WHIP, 51 hits over 52.1 IP with a 41/23 K:BB

PHILLIES NUGGETS PREGAME NOTES

  • The Phillies won the season series a year ago 4-3. They’ll try to do the same this season after taking two of three earlier this month.
  • Phillies have won 18 of 28 home games this season and their .643 winning percentage at home ranks T-5th in MLB. Phillies have drawn a total of 1,006,503 fans in 28 home games this season, an average of 35,946 per game which ranks 6th in MLB
  • Phillies have won 18 of their last 29 games (4/25-current) and their .621 winning percentage in that span is tied for the second-best record in the National League
  • In his last start against STL on 6/18/18, Pivetta struck out a career-high 13 batters
  • Lefty reliever Adam Morgan has not allowed a HR to his last 118 LHH (since 6/7/18) and only 1 HR to the last 193 LHH he faced (since 8/2/17)
  • Closer Hector Neris has converted 12 straight saves since 5/21/18 (2nd-longest streak of his career) and 20 of 23 since the start of last season. In those last 12 save opportunities, has pitched 13.2 IP and allowed 1 run on 5 H and 2 BB with 20 K’s.

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