Based on their current roster, the talent levels and questions marks involving the other contenders, and the fact that I believe Dombrowski will work aggressively in-season to further improve that roster at every chance, this 2021 Phillies team could win the NL East.
NL East Division position comparison: bullpens
NL East Division position comparison: bullpen rankings
Dwindling free agent pool still includes players to help Phillies
Dwindling free agent pool still includes players to help Phillies