It is often the most exciting hitting prospects who garner the most attention when Major League Baseball fans are looking forward to new additions with their favorite clubs. But those fans also need to remember that pitching is perhaps the single most crucial factor in their team’s ultimate success.
No big-league organization can afford to fill its rotation solely with high-priced free agents. Developing a few gems from within your own minor league system is an important piece to the puzzle when trying to assemble a championship ball club.
While most teams can find some level of pitching help from among their minor leaguers, finding a true ace caliber arm might be the single most difficult to develop.
Only five of the current top 25 prospects in baseball as ranked by MLB Pipeline and seven of the top 25 as ranked by Baseball America are pitchers. This highlights both the prevalence of top caliber arms and the difficulty in finding true gems.
Three pitchers find themselves ranked among the top nine overall prospects in the game by both organizations. This trio of elite starting pitchers all appear ready to impact the game this coming season at some point.
Roki Sasaki – Los Angeles Dodgers
A right-hander from Japan, Roki Sasaki signed a $6.5 million deal with the defending world champions in mid-January. He will pitch the entire 2025 season at age 23. Sasaki has already pitched professionally with Chiba Lotte Marines over four years 2021-24 in the Japan Pacific League.
Appearing in 69 games, Sasaki allowed just 275 hits across his 414.2 innings in Japan. Sasaki fashioned an overall 2.02 ERA, 0.883 WHIP, and a 524/91 strikeout-to-walk ratio over those four seasons.
Scouts have assigned their highest possible grade, an 80, on Sasaki’s splitter, a devastating pitch that he works off what is also a 70-grade fastball. His third pitch slider garners 55-60 grades and he tops it all off with 60-grade control.
Perhaps the only blip on the Sasaki radar is concern regarding a slight dip in his average fastball velocity a year ago as compared to his prior career. There is also the fact that he has never pitched more than 129.1 innings in any season.
With the Dodgers likely to utilize a six-man rotation for large swathes of the coming season, that innings total is irrelevant. If Sasaki is healthy, he should prove to be one of the most effective starters in the game.
After Sasaki had made his second start of the spring this past weekend, Dodgers pitching coach Mark Prior had this to say per Sonja Chen at MLB.com:
“I think our first thing is the same thing we did with Yamamoto last year, just trying to get him acclimated to, one, the U.S. style of baseball and practices and meetings and different things. … These first couple weeks is really both of us trying to get to know each other and then try to progress from there. Get him dialed in with some things that he wants to work on.”
Jackson Jobe – Detroit Tigers
Jackson Jobe is the highest-ranked American-born and developed pitching prospect with both MLB Pipeline, where he is ranked fifth overall, and at Baseball America which ranks him as their third overall prospect.
Selected with the third overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft by the Tigers out of Heritage Hall High School in Oklahoma City, Jobe has battled injury problems in each of the last two seasons that have slowed his development somewhat.
During spring training in 2023, Jobe was diagnosed with lumbar spine inflammation that kept him out until mid-June. When he returned, the right-hander was outstanding, bolting up through four levels of the Detroit minors system.
There was talk at this time a year ago that Jobe could possibly make his big league debut in 2024. But a hamstring injury caused him to miss nearly all of May and half of the month of June. Once again after returning, Jobe resumed his dominance of minor league hitters.
Finally, that big-league debut came as the season was ending. He made four appearances out of the bullpen for a Detroit club that pushed its way somewhat unexpectedly into a wildcard playoff berth.
A 70-grade fastball fronts a repertoire that also includes a 70-grade slider/sweeper. Both his cutter and changeup have 60 grades and has 60-grade control. Jobe now enters spring training this year anticipating a spot in the Tigers starting rotation.
Jobe looked strong in his first outing of the spring this past weekend, though he did beat himself up over a walk that was followed by a home run. Tigers manager A.J. Hinch was quoted by Jason Beck at MLB.com: “He’s always going to be a harsh critic on himself, which is generally a good trait. I’m glad it’s about the right things. I don’t want him to be frustrated with the wrong things, and strike-throwing in a situation where he has the hitter down is exactly what he’s going to learn to be better at.”
Andrew Painter – Philadelphia Phillies
Entering spring training of 2023 there was talk that Andrew Painter could force his way into the Phillies’ starting rotation during what was to be his age 20 season. But elbow problems resulted in summer Tommy John surgery, causing the righty to miss the rest of that year and all of 2024.
Painter was able to return to make a half-dozen starts with Glendale in the Arizona Fall League. Those six outings proved to be eye openers. Painter flashed his entire repertoire that includes a 70-grade fastball and 60-grade slider, an effective curve and changeup, and what some have given 70-grade control.
He will not make the Opening Day roster. Painter is going to be brought along slowly, pitching on back fields during spring training and finally working his way into minor league games. But if all goes as planned, he should be pushing for a spot in Philly no later than the All-Star Game break.
“I’ve said all along July-ish and I don’t know if that means June or August,” club president Dave Dombrowski said two weeks ago. “Hopefully we have five really good starting pitchers at that point that make it difficult for him to break into (the rotation). So, you wait to see what happens. But that’s when I think we’ll turn him loose more because if you look at the innings limitation, we want to build him up and not burn him too early in the year.”
Turning just 22 about a week into the season, the Phillies top prospect is the youngest of this trio. With both Sasaki and Jobe expected to begin the year in the majors, Painter could quickly elevate himself to become the very top pitching prospect in the game.
The Field deserving of mention
A handful of other pitchers have a chance to debut this year. While none may have the true ace potential of the big three, any or all could be solid contributors to their big-league rotations.
These arms include Bubba Chandler of Pittsburgh, Chase Dollander in Colorado, Noah Schultz of the Chicago White Sox, Brandon Sproat of the New York Mets, Kumar Rocker with Texas, Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns at Cincinnati, Cade Horton of the Chicago Cubs, and Quinn Mathews with Saint Louis.
MATT VEASEY 